A CASE FOR IMPROVING THE SOUTH ASIAN ECONOMIES

We have all along been following blindly the concept of measuring the economic growth based on the GDP of the nation. This is just based on the production of goods and services that varies from time to time. You put more money in the hands of the people so that they will buy more goods and services and this increase in demand will act as a catalyst for increase in production and create more jobs. The Central Bank keeps cutting bank rates hoping that the banks’ increased liquidity will help them to lend more.

Conceptually it looks good. But in their haste to find a genuine business, the banks often end up playing into the hands of Mallyas and Chokshis who, in the end, flee the country leaving behind a sizable amount of their borrowings as Non Performing Assets in the Balance Sheet of the lending institutions. These guys go unpunished because of the tremendous political clouts they wield, leave aside the length of time the courts take to dispose of their cases.

 In addition, there is this credit card business which simply increases the purchasing power in our hands and, as a result, we end up buying things which we don’t need. America lives on credit. Many of them live a life of pay check to pay check which means, if they don’t get paid by the 15th of the month, their life would come to a standstill. The credit cards are extensively used in every transaction which, in fact, means buying in the present against a future income. The accumulated balances on credit cards have always been a problem, especially during a global catastrophe, like Corona Virus, ultimately ending up bankruptcy of the card holder and making domestic life miserable often leading to violence.

When the recession towards the end of the last decade made the world economies to run for cover, India survived because of the saving habits of the people. In the recent past, a lot of noise was made in India about the affordable prices of onion. There was a lot of panic around. The simple solution would have been to reduce your consumption and look for alternative food. You are not going to die if you don’t eat onion for a while. When the demand goes down, the prices will come down. Again look at the crude prices today. It has gone to sub zero levels. The national lockdown declared by most of the countries has pushed the vehicles off the road resulting in a drop demand. The end result: The oil companies operate at lower capacity and so many jobs are lost. All these are vicious circles.

In any assessment of economic performance of a country, the happiness of the population is another factor to be considered. If you look back, a few decades ago, before the technology brought us television, computers, cell phones, internet, etc., were people not happy living?  While technology helped in connecting the global population, it had its own disadvantages in that cyber crimes increased, countries started spending more on military and other allied services regardless of whether they could afford the spending or not. The newly acquired technology is being used more for the improvisation of the military capability than to quench the hunger of the masses and treating millions of sick all over the world.

Recently, India placed an order for 36 Raffle jet fighters from France at a whooping cost of 35 billion to counter the challenge from F-16 fighter aircraft that Pakistan acquired from the USA. While this puts the two nuclear neighbors in a balanced position, the people who really gained are the business entities who supply the warplanes.  That means the governments equip themselves to guard against a possible threat from the neighbor which is just notional and if there are no wars in the near future, the investment in the technology becomes not only a waste but, over a period of time, it becomes obsolete and you start investing again to replace the old machines with newer one, of course at the tax payers cost. Imagine, if all these resources are deployed for the development of the economy, to what extent we can improve life quality of the poor and downtrodden. The USA, China and India put together have an estimated annual budget of 1064 billion US Dollars for their military, and even a reduction b y 50% will make available plenty of resources for development. The economists never link the happiness of the masses when they put the figures together.

How can we solve this riddle? If you stop for a moment to think on the following proposal, the economies of South Asian nations will grow rapidly, and with their brainpower and skilled lab our force, can compete with the best in the world.  Full openness and trust between the nations is a must to achieve this. The nations with a common borders  like India, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar an Sri Lanka have to come together and  sign a NO WAR PACT FOR THE NEXT 50 YEARS, leaving the border disputes where they are. This will ensure peace and tranquility in the region and there being no fear of war, all the partied concerned can concentrate on the development of their respective countries. This will become all the more relevant now, when the world nations are trying to recover from the onslaught of the deadly Corona virus. This idea, to be successful, the concerned nations have to come to the negotiating table throwing out of the window, the attitude of suspicion they had for each other. If we come to a common understanding and start working towards this achievable goal, I am sure this planet will become a beautiful place for human in-habitation. Remember the old adage, “there is no winner in a war”. But all we need the political will.

CORONA VIRUS- HOW THE CHINESE STRATEGY MISFIRED

The law of unintended consequences can, sometimes, play havoc in the society. The empowerment of Mr. Xi Jinping by the communist party of China as President for life gave him added ammunition to tighten his grip on the global affairs.

It is no secret that Communist China has always nurtured its territorial ambitions. When it gobbled up Tibet, the world nations looked the other way, including United Nations. India may be an exception, but the voice of India won’t count at that time for obvious reasons. Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province, has always been a thorn in the flesh, and has positioned itself in such a way that China cannot militarily intervene because of the strong backing of America and its western allies it has  enjoyed over the years.  Moreover, the presence of American carriers in the vicinity will act as a deterrent and it will be in its own interest to avoid a military conflict.

To add to this, Hong Kong, since its handover to China by the British in 1997, has been creating new problems over the governance of the island as we saw in the recent apprising against trying the residents in the courts of Mainland which are run by the communist party. The people of Hong Kong are used to living in a democratic set up and will not accept any authoritarian rule.

This puts President Xi Jinping in an awkward position.  How does he tackle this? China, in the past, has been secretly developing biological weapons, as an alternative to military option, to use against revolutionaries and dissidents who resisted every movement by the communist party to control their future. In the event of a full scale military conflict, China cannot hold out against the fire power of the US and its allies and, if a conflict starts and the use of a nuclear option becomes inevitable, the first person who exercises that option will have serious consequences and may be even isolated by the world nations at large to their national detriment.

Under the circumstances, biological weapons becomes more effective in that it can destroy other nations without resorting to a military conflict, just by infiltrating a virus among the population that can help in the mass killing of the people enemas and can wreck their economies. This is what was being planned and quietly executed in the laboratories in Wuhan from where it was, unfortunately, it leaked out and spread into its own society. The doctor who blew the first whistle also died of the same virus, the COVID – 19, under suspicious circumstances

China never thought it will have such a wide repercussions, but it misfired and global travelling further aggravated the situation. What was intended for Taiwan and Hong Kong hit their own backyard and spread to nations across the world. The very fact that China refused the WHO team to visit Wuhan lends more credibility to this theory. The law of unintended consequences in operation.

TROUBLED NORTH-EAST: THE CHINESE ANGLE

Whenever there is ethnic violence somewhere in the country, our short sighted politicians start the blame game without bothering to dig deeper to analyze the root cause. The current disturbances in the north-east province followed by the attacks on the same community in different parts of India, according to my analysis, are part of a grand game plan carefully hatched by the Chinese authorities.

I am a nationalist Indian and I have no political affiliations. However, I like to analyse each situation from a different angle and apprise the concerned so that they may see things in the right perspective and find appropriate solution. The following links, if you put together, will lend credibility to my China theory.

If you are regular China watcher, I am sure you would have observed the growing Chinese interest in establishing their military presence both in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal. It all started in Sri Lanka with port building support, then military aid followed by full backing in the war against LTTE. Even after the rebel leaders surrendered and laid down the arms, they were slaughtered mercilessly and displayed in public which was totally against Geneva Convention. Obviously, they had the full support of China who was using the island nation in a proxy war to intimidate India by hurting the feelings of Indian Tamil community. When this ploy failed to bring a military response, China began using Sri Lankan navy to abduct Indian fishermen, especially Tamil, to provoke Indian government and this also failed to produce the desired results.

Then came the Chinese protests over the oil drilling activities in South China Sea where ONGC was exploring the possibility of tapping oil resources within the legitimate Indian territorial waters. China’s objection to Indian road building in Arunachal Pradesh and terrorizing the local population is part of a wider plan the Dragon has been designing. The recent ethnical violence in Assam and targeting the NE people in different parts of India should be seen as off shoots of a wider conspiracy to destabilize the region. The only difference here is that instead of Sri Lanka, it is Pakistan that is playing the role of proxy. China’s offer of military assistance to Bangladesh and Myanmar adds credibility to this theory. Who knows China will not try to annex the tiny North Eastern states that will give them complete control of the Bay of Bengal. Remember, when China gobbled up Tibet, the whole world watched and remained spectators. But, this will be a different ball game. Politicians, please watch out.

The destruction of twin towers in 2001, the worst terror strike in human history, strained the US relations with its hitherto trusted ally, and it sunk further with the unauthorized killing of Al Qaida chief Osama Bin Laden. The retaliation by the terror groups who regularly target the NATO convoys and other American interests is making the US dilute its relation with their troubled partner in the war against terrorism. With the military colluding with terrorist outfits and calling shots for an elected but weak civilian government, the US interest in its former ally has been diminishing. This is where Pakistan started to lean towards China for assistance and the latter wasted no time in grabbing the opportunity.

The recent attacks on the Hindu community in Pakistan and their consequent exodus to India, the pre-planned publicity of letters from Sabarjit Singh, who has been languishing in jail for years (we will all be stupid to believe that the letter can be easily smuggled out bypassing the security), the resumption of firing along the LOC and the recent mass SMS to derail the North-East region (it is more clear now that the source of this SMS has been traced to Pakistan) cannot be viewed as isolated incidents, but as part of a wider conspiracy employed by Beijing aimed at creating commotion and arresting its economic growth.

In the Indian Ocean, if the proxy is Sri Lanka, in the eastern front, it is Pakistan. In both cases, the politicians can be either bought or coerced into submission. The UPA government, neck deep in trouble with corruption and other charges, appears unable to see things in the right perspective. It is high time they set aside petty issues and focus on national security.

Life Term: A Ploy to Defeat the System

Two verdicts, that attracted a lot of public interest, have come out within the span of one week related to cases of rape and murder. One, the Priyadarshini Mattoo’s case, where the apex court has commuted the death sentence pronounced by the lower court to life term, after a prolonged legal battle that took 15 years. The second, the Pratiba Moorthy’s case, where the fast track court, which took five years to complete, also pronounced a lifer to the taxi driver in a similar case.

The court ruling has given a rude shock to the public. Judiciary, the last remaining ray of hope for the common man, has begun to prove time and again that it is also slowly becoming part of the grand nexus between the rich and influential groups and that the common man has to fend for himself. If you can visualize what kind of agony and trauma these young girls would have undergone during the crime and their families thereafter, even the capital punishment is too little. I do not know if the judge would have taken a different stand if the victims were his own daughters.

Life term is nothing, but a ploy to defeat the system. The media has been playing a crucial role in unearthing cases which would, otherwise, have been buried by the system, but their role is limited to seeing that the law enforcing agencies are pressurized into action. Public memories are short and the whole episode will be consigned to history as time passes.

After waiting for a few years, the cases are either reopened for dubious reasons or, on occasion like Gandhi Jayandhi or a minister’s birthday, when clemency is granted to a few prisoners, these anti-social elements serving life term find their way out citing good behavior, etc. as reason for their release. Then they are free for the rest of their life. What more can we expect from the legal system in this country where even convicted terrorists like Afzal Guru and Ajmal Kasab enjoys a wonderful life.

Singapore is an example to follow. The crime rate is almost zero there because all citizens are equal in the eyes of law regardless of how powerful or influential you are. The time we take for each case, the minimal punishment with which the criminals are let off the hook, easy availability of bail for any crime and inability to carry out the court order is making a mockery of our law and order system. The citizens have to unite and initiate a mass movement against such judgments to secure the life of young girls.

India: The Epicenter of World Corruption

If Pakistan is infamous as the epicenter of world terrorism, India is fast acquiring the notorious name as the epicenter of world corruption. Thanks to Indian media, in that, it has resorted to wonderful investigative journalism blowing whistle at regular intervals and conducting sting operations with clinical precision.

The latest in the fray is the CWG after the IPL saga. News channels are not irresponsible entities to publish any material without thorough research and investigation. There has been considerable cost overrun apart from complaints of delay and poor quality workmanship in all CWG related projects. AM Films, a relatively unknown firm, is a one man show which, according to press reports, recently applied for liquidation. Whenever a politician gets involved with any sport or game, be it cricket, football, hockey or athletics, one can smell the rat and CWG is no exception.

India has now successfully showcased itself as the epicenter of world corruption. The startling disclosures by TV channels have shown the world community the bottomless fathom to which the Indian politicians can stoop. It has not only made the life of the law abiding citizen miserable, but has penetrated all the way into the defense forces where inferior equipments are procured a t the cost of the soldier who is guarding the frontiers of the nation. Corruption has even infected the judiciary where judgments are influenced by the power of money and muscle.

This is nothing, but oligarchy in full swing. The ruling UPA has no guts to take action against coalition partners and look the other way whenever they are drawn into controversy. The intelligencia have become silent spectators totally disempowered by the powerful lobby of the rich and influential. The future of the nation is in deep trouble.

DO WE NEED ANOTHER EMERGENCY

When the late Prime Minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi declared emergency in 1973, the whole world condemned her autocratic way of functioning and called her the biggest threat to the Indian Democracy. But, almost forty years down the line, we seem to be reaching another stalemate where the govt. may have to resort to declaring another emergency to safeguard the interests of the nation.

Kashmir valley is burning. Stone pelting, curfews, demonstrations, police excesses, etc. have become the order of the day. The separatists and their Pakistani handlers are having a field day and neither the home ministry nor the foreign ministry has been able to find a solution. The terrorists are striking at will because we are too soft a state to punish the guilty. We are not hanging Afzal Guru or Ajmal Kasab because the govt. may lose Muslim votes in the next election.

The army which is ‘nuclear capable’ and other border security forces like CRPF and BSF have become a regular fodder for ULFA and Naxals operating in the north-east. You find police informers among the Naxals and Naxal informers among the police. It all looks like Asterisk comics and the ultimate sufferers are the families of poor soldiers.

When it comes to opposing the government all the parties join together and call for national ‘Bandh’. Their main agenda, destruction of public property, is religiously carried out by party workers and paid goons with clinical precision who don’t realize that their bosses are the real gainers at the cost of their personal lives.

Now, let us examine the scenario in south. Maharashtra wants Belgaum to be annexed to the state because it has more Marathi speaking people. Whether the Maharstrians residing in Belgaum wants it or not is irrelevant. The politicians want it. Again let’s burn buses and destroy public property so that we can have an amicable solution. This is a priority issue and let’s shift issues like terrorism to the back burner. Did the common man gain anything by changing the name from Bombay to Mumbai, Calcutta to Kolkatta or Madras to Chennai? Nothing, but political gimmicks.

Karnataka govt. is rampant with corruption. The MLAs have converted the state assembly into a hostel as part of their protest against the illegal mining lobby which enjoys state protection. Added to this, a senior minister in the UPA govt. and a key ally in the coalition, has requested the Prime Minister to dilute his national responsibilities as he is unable to cope up with work due to his new found lucrative position as ICC president.

Mr. Manmohan Singh and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi are really in hot soup. I strongly recommend the declaration of a second emergency. Our politicians have made the UPA govt. ineffective and unfunctional.

Bhopal Disaster: Leave Anderson Alone

Twenty six long years have passed since the Bhopal tragedy that killed thousands of people and permanently disabled many more in greater number and, now, the very same authorities that ensured a smooth passage for Warren Anderson, the chief culprit, want him back in the country to be tried for the crime.

There cannot be a greater political joke. After having successfully distributed the remains of the Four hundred and Seventy million US Dollars received as compensation after the babu’s had their share, now the government wants to constitute a Group of Ministers to look into the issue. Bureaucracy over bureaucracy and additional cost over already incurred costs. The government has the resources when it comes to expenditure on probe committees, but their pockets go empty when it comes to the issue of assisting the hapless victims.

Sometime back we ran after Quottrochi, the Italian businessman, wanted in connection with Bofor pay offs and the outcome is known to all. We are on the same trail and the investigation will have a natural death and forgotten in due course. If, in twenty six years, we have not succeeded in booking those responsible for the tragedy, the scenario cannot be different after hundred years.

Why flog the dead horse? Forget the past and concentrate on positive steps like rehabilitating those who still need help. No resources! I have the answer. Seventy lakh Crores of Rupees are lying in Swiss Banks belonging to Indians. Bring back those funds, tax them at a flat rate of 30% and declare amenity to the account holders. You can build a new Bhopal from the scratch.